Market Rebounded

Today's market gain back half of yesterday's lose: Dow Jones up 485 (4.85%) , Nasdaq up 98.6 (4.97%) closed at 2082.33 and S&P500 up 58.32 (5.27%) closed at 1164.74. As many investors see this is an relative low point to get into the stock market and hope the congress will pass the rescue plan on Thursday's meeting.
The three indices are showing harami , a bullish signal for tomorrow.
EEV today down almost $21 (17.75%), it is still above the EMA50 but break EMA20 which I wished the support level. The MACD looks interesting as its value 1.663 but the MACD line is below the signal; though the MACD Hist -1.717 and its slop is positive. I will dig the meaning of this chart. The emerging market should be still in the bear market for mid/long term, I believe today's rally is a technically rebound.
VIX index reached highest level at 48.4, it surprised me that the markets still have this kind of momentum. The reason maybe because of the employment rate still in good condition, the worst thing could happen maybe the unemployment rate over 10% nationwide and this will be the core reason that the US government is worried about and hope it will not happen.

Today's Move:
Added EEV @101.12. (Yesterday bought at 114, today market closed at 97.05)

Free Fall US Market

As the result of the bailout plan rejected in Congress, the Dow Jones plunge 777.68 point (7%), Nasdaq down 199.61 (9%) , S&P500 down 106.85. Global market also plunge as US market lose.
Gold up 5.9 to $894.4 , oil drop 10.5 to $96.87. Citi to buy wachovia banking business.

This morning I set to buy goog at $395 and spx at $115 but then cancel after think it over as this is not the time trying to grab the bottom. This bottom would be very long, so we will have enough time to get it if we have cash in hand. Since the order for NVDA was set on Friday, I didn't cancel it this morning, it had been triggered; but then I took the lose and get away from it.

Buying EEV (ultra-short emerging market) because the US investors/companies will need fund to rescue their own house and as US economics is possible into recession, the market would be hit hard in those emerging markets.

Today's Move :
Buy/Sold NVDA: Buy at $11.25; sold at $10.5 (market closed at $10.10 )
Covered RTH at $90.46 (market closed at $88.21)
Bought EEV $114.62 (market closed at $88.21)

Friday's note (09/26/08)

The market opened lower as the reaction of Washington Mutual bailout but closed 121 point higher as investors expect the $700billion rescue package will pass during the weekend.;
RIMM down $26.77 (27.45%) closed at $70.76 and it had reached my goal for this shorted stock.

Today's trade:
Covered RIMM $71.69

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Bailout Plan Stall, Fed seize WaMu

The market closed higher today as investors expect the congress may pass the bailout plan.
3 major index up 1.5%. After market, the fed closed Washington Mutual , FDIC is a receiver of this action, then FDIC conducted the bidding process that led to the purchase by JP Morgan Chase.
WaMu share price drops to $0.45 after hour.(-73%)
Research In Motion reported earning after hour, and its share price drops 18~20% during after hour trading, despite the strong earnings of 2nd quarter.

Today's Move:
Short RIMM at 100.25
Cover half short position of RIMM after hour $78.44
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觀察中

今天股市變動不大 市場關注焦點仍在那7000億美元援助計畫在國會(眾院)的討論情形
布希總統更發表演說呼籲國會通過紓困方案以免造成更多人失業 更多銀行倒閉 更多法拍屋 更長的衰退期 退休帳戶虧損擴大

另外今天華爾街日報頭條新聞是 Warren Buffett投資GoldmanSachs 50億美元
中國股市周四開盤上漲 FXP 還是看看就好
中國毒奶粉事件 這是早在奧運期間就知道 中國總理溫先生竟然在聯大睜眼說瞎話
「中國政府高度重視最近發生的嬰幼兒奶粉事件，並立即採取果斷措施處理」
三鹿奶粉新廣告辭已改成 喝三鹿奶粉讓你更結石(實)
不顧人民生命健康的政府 國家 特別每次都是嬰兒受害最大(大頭娃娃) 中國到底記取了甚麼教訓?
這次又是由外國(紐西蘭)提出 到底是誰的人民啊? 這是怎麼不說是外國干涉中國內政了呢?

日本新首相上任(麻生)

Weak Retail Forcast of holiday season

As the economic situation and 5 fewer days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, the retail sale for this year's holiday season would be bad.
TSMC utilization rate (產能利用率) also drops 25% till the first quarter of next year. Those indicators suggest the economic would be down further and not only limited to the financial industry. To solve the problem , the first thing is to find the solution of the root -- real estate or housing market; unfortunately, it will not recover at least in two years unless there will be a totally different ideas.
The congress and taxpayers are already very concerned about the 700billion rescue plan, and the Dow Jones industry down 161.84 closed at 10854.17, Nasdaq down 25.65 closed at 2153.33, S&P500 down 18.87 closed at 1188.22. Gold $891.2 down 17.8.

Today's Trade:
Short BBY at 38.

Two day's rally is a ... trap...

As I mentioned last Thursday, the two days rally just looks like a trap.
The market just gave back gain on Friday:
Dow Jones down 372.75 closed at 11015.69,Nasdaq down 94.92 closed at 2178.98, S&P500 down 47.99 closed at 1207.09.
Oil up 16.37 closed at 120 and gold up 44.30 closed at 909. The oil is up partially because of the dollar weaken, but the gold is different story. Since ban on short selling of 799+30 stocks, the short ETF or fund need to find a way to know how to balance it. As these uneven rules, it just make the market more vulnerable, unstable.

Today's move : none.

gld: +3.2 , $89.18
rimm: -5.6 ,$97.84
rth:-4.25,$90.35

Rally on US rescue plan

The market rally as US government rescue plan and announce of ban on short selling of 799 stocks. Dow Jones Up +368.75 (3.35%) to 1,388.44, Nasdaq up 74.80 (3.4%) to 2273.90, S&P500 up 48.57(4.03%) to 1255.08.
Gold market down 32.3 (3.6%) to 864.7, the biggest percentage loss in more than 25 years;
though the GLD still up 3.16(3.82%) to $85.96.

Friday's Trade:
Sold ANR @65.8
Added Short Position of RIMM @103.8

US Step In -- World market Soar

The market ended up sharply at the end of trading hour as hope of US government will step in to rescue the market, central banks around the globe also step in to "slow" the meltdown market.
As a result, the Dow Jones up 410 (3.86%) to 11019.60; Nasdaq up 100.25 (4.78%) to 2199.1 and S&P500 up 50.12 to 1206.51.
Notice that Dow30 replaced AIG with Kraft... this the trick of index.
The Gold up 46.7 to 897 (once reached $900), but GLD Down 2.66 (3.11%) to $82.8 ? Will to figure out why it goes opposite direction.
The charts still look bearish, but it can jump like this; the street saying about the possibility of halt short selling and have congress to support the move for the down market.
What I am worried about is this temp solution cannot solve the problem but create a trap and big hole for investors and tax-payer to pay the cost. It may go up to EMA 50 level for a short period of time, but it is far from the bottom, and it's not a reversal signal, yet.Though it maybe a short term reversal signal.
Maybe it is good time the check my 401K, I do not touch at all this year..

Today's move:
Bought GLD at $89.82

Fed extended loan to AIG -- Global Market Lose Deepen

Dow Jones down 449.36 (4.06%) closed at 10609.66, Nasdaq down 109.05 (4.94%) to 2098.85,
S&P500 down 57.21 (4.71%) closed at 1156.39.
Another down day in the market today, I was wrong about the hope that Nasdaq may have short recovery, yeah, very very short !! So I took lose early this morning on QQQQ, it seems a right move at the end of the day.
As the market down south sharply, I have made my move to the other direction. The SEC announce new rule regarding to the short sale (again ?! Didn't they see that it did not work a month ago about finance companies ? they just want to slow down the reaction but it only get worse)
Anyway, as the market sell-off across the globe, the gold up $70 (8.97%) to 850.50, I was thinking about to buy GLD yesterday but concerned about Fed's move about interest rate, since Fed kept rate unchanged, I got GLD this morning.
Here is my trade today:
Today's Move:
Bought GLD at 82.89
Added Short position RIMM at 93.9
Added Short position RTH at 93.94
Sold QQQQ at 41.15 (took lose)
Sold half ANR at 54.23 (took lose)
(Google down 28.44 to 414.49; good move yesterday)

Tomorrow : Check if good chance to add GLD

Fed Keeps rate unchange;Samsung_SanDisk Deal Broken

As today's focus on AIG this morning and Fed move this afternoon, the markets show signs of life:

Dow Jones : 11,059.02 +141.51

Nasdaq : 2,207.90 +27.99
S&P500 : 1213.60 +20.90
As hoped yesterday, the Nasdaq did show it strength and back up to 2200, though still below 3 major moving avg it shows at least a short term bull may appear next few days.
From both candlestick and slow STO shown in the chart, it looks better chance has come.

After market, SanDisk jumped 52%, or $7.89, to $22.93 after Samsung Electronics offered to buy for $26 a share in cash, but SanDisk rejected the offer. The price after hour shown abve is just few minutes before SanDisk annouced its decision.

Today's trade: (Kind of contradictory, yeah, the market is volatile)
Sold GOOG: $441.12
Buy QQQQ: $42.76
Short RIMM : $98.03
Short RTH : $95.95

Bear Roars -- possible sign of life for Nasdaq

The Dow Jones (10,917.51, -504 , 4.4%), Nasdaq down (2,179.91, -81.36 -3.6%), S&P500(1,192.70, -59.00, -4.7%). VIX 31.70
Lehman Brothers filed Bankruptcy and Merrill Lynch Sell to Bank of America.
The market looks like panic today but the VIX only reach 31.70, just higher than July's low, but lower than Jan and March's low.
ANR had dropped below EMA200 closed at 55.34 (-15.00-21.32%), SIMO reached all time low closed at $5.66.
The dollar maybe weaken as the soft economics and Fed may lower the interest rate.
The Nasdaq broke 2200 support, but still above 2155 mentioned last week and it is possible we have seen the inverted hammer from the chart which will need to be confirmed tomorrow. If Nasdaq closed higher tomorrow, we will see a bull shortly.

Today's move:
ANR Bought at $60.6
UUP Sold at $24.32

Portola Camping Photo

http://picasaweb.google.com/ray.juiwu/Camping2008#

Battle Ground on 9-11

Today's market:
The market open lower today in the morning but rally higher in final moments of trade. The Dow Jones up 164.79 closed at 11433.71, Nasdaq up 29.52 closed at 2258.22, S&P500 up 17.01 closed at 1249.05. The main indexes seem found their resent support.

Nasdaq: The Nasdaq holds its support around 2200, today's low at 2191.53. And that's the reason my moves today in RIMM and Google.
ANR seems a bit bumping today, kind of struggling around EMA200 battle ground.

Today's trade:
Covered Short Position RIMM $106.9.
As from yesterday's note, I was watching carefully on the move RIMM this morning, and made decision closed it at 106.9. Yesterday's signal is actually sign to get out of short position, but I didn't act until today. Well, it turns out ok since it closed even higher at 109.32. Will continue to watch this stock to see it around EMA200 (114).

Bought Goog 419.45.
It looks good from candle stick point of view, but need to watch carefully on this stock for it is actually still bearish trend, just try to catch short term gain.

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091008_ANR

Today's market: flat--
Today's trade: bought ANR $67 ...
RIMM Up 5.31 at 104.61. wait to cover.

Taiwanran

source: http://shiami.blogspot.com/2008/02/blog-post_1704.html

090808_Nasdaq

Today's market cannot continue on yesterday's gain and give up from yesterday's gain.The Dow Jons failed 280 point, Nasdaq down 59.95 and S&P500 down 43.28.

As the Nasdaq index finished at 2209.81 today, not too far from mentioned a week ago that it would drop 100 points. Now it comes to an important support near 2200;

The Nasdaq's will be between 2155 ~ 2300 in the near term, the trade swing you might take advantage of.

It is still a bear market, so we may watch if taking short position work or not when it bounce around 2280 ~ 2300.

ANR: ANR had closed under EMA200 (66.12) at $64.14 much lower than I was expecting;and it had already satisfied with my target price.

Today's Trade:

covered ANR at $68.84

Camping at Portola Redwoods SP

Last Saturday Sep-06, a very hot late summer day , we spent a night in the Portola redwoods State Park group camping site....
Leaving Santa Clara at 12:00, go north HWY280, exit at S. El Monte Av to Moody Rd.
After turning to the Page Mill Rd, it was all winding mountain road, arrive the park around 1pm.

Fannie-Freddie bailout

Finally the US government took action on these two failed companies during the weekend, much faster than I expected. I was thinking to sell Fannie sometimes this week last Friday,anyway, it was too late.
Will this rescue the Housing or US economic ? I do not think so....
It used tax-payer's money to buy these two companies.

090408 Bear Shows

It is down day for whole market:
MRVL: $11.94 down 0.69 (5.46%)
NASDAQ: 2,259.04 down 74.69 (3.20%)
DOW: 11,188.23 down 344.65 (2.99%)



MRVL had been oversold today (yet not imply to bottom), the real damage happend on yesterday's sell off,
it may bounce back a bit next few business days but the trend is still very bearish.
it broke down the support I was wishing for last week at $13.

ANR & RIMM had finally come down to the level I was waiting for months;
RIMM had broke its EMA200 and it is keep diving;
ANR perfoms better, still a way above EMA200 , but below EMA50.

FXP had been up closed at $100 !! (wow)

The whole market just dive so sharply, as I mentioned yesterday that Nasdaq will drop 100 point from 2300;
and it came down half of it in one day.
Nasdaq just had dead cross of EMA20/50, and continue diving south, it is going to test the low of July and could be worse than that.

Today's trade:
cover half short position of ANR & RIMM.
cover all short position of FXP at $95, (cover half of it yesterday at $90)
sold SSG yesterday at $72.3 ($80.9 today's close)

090308_ANR

For the first time of a year, ANR had broke EMA50; MACD shows weakness of this stock from its peak.
It will continue to struggle up to EMA50, but the trend had been changed from bull to bear,
especially with today's fall.

Position: Short.
Support: 70 or even test EMA200.
Resistance: EMA20/50

090208_Nasdaq

The Nasdaq is still under its EMA200 (2413) resistance and shows a long black (red) candle today;
the EMA20/50 support are both broken today. It is going to test the next support near 2300.