聯儲局降息的影響-- Impact of Interest Rate Cut

Bank of Japan cuts interest 0.2%, the interest rate had drop to 0.3%. How far can central banks of the world go ?
The major indies today gain about 2%, the Dow Jones was up 189.73 closed at 9180.69 (still below 9200), Nasdaq was up 41.31 closed at 1698.52, S&P500 was up 24 closed at 954.Gold dropped $15.5 closed at $738.5 and oil was down $1.45 closed at $64.5.

Today's trade is out of the discipline: both EEV and SMN were all dropped more than 10%, though I am still betting on these two stocks since the trend is still bearish. I think I can still hold on, since the major indies are failed to break out the trend line.
Asian markets now are down, and I guess the bull cannot survive over the weekend and there will be the presidential election next week. EEV is way down too much, if it is still below $120 tomorrow, it should be out of my portfolio.

Today's Trade:
Bought EEV $95.26
Bought SMN $75.06

*************************************

Fed Cut Interest Rate 0.5%

The market was up and down during early trading hours and jumped to 200 points gain in the last hour, then 15 minutes before the closing bell, it dropped sharply and ended up with 74 points lose from yesterday's close. The Dow Jones closed at 8990.96, NASDAQ was up 7.74 , closed at 1657.21; S&P500 down 10.42 closed at 930.
The Fed announced the interested rate as market expected by 0.5%, the interest rate now is 1%.
The oil was up $2.92 and the gold was up $13.5 due to this interest rate cut for weaken the dollar;the commodity and basic material were also up.
ANR was up $4.61 (15%) today because of the interest cut, and I expect it will continue to go up.
It is also excess the 7% lose when I shorted days ago, so it's time to take a lose.
For EEV and SMN, I will think today's interest cut would not impact it much as of to commodity; so I just took a bold move to add the short position since the trend is still bearish.. Anyway, if it will lose more than 10% by tomorrow, I may also to take a lose from it.

It is also time to look for good companies to invest next, though, the presidential election is a week after which will also be a factor to affect the market. Let's wait and see.


Today's Trade:
Covered ANR $34.25
Added EEV $114.16
Added SMN $78

************************************

Another Trap ?

The Dow Jones index was up 889.35 (10.88%), back to 9000 level closed at 9065.12. The other US market index are also up about 10%. I still don't know the reason why the market was rally so much, maybe because of the market in Asia was up more than 10% and expect the Fed will cut interest rate 0.5% to 1%. Well, the trend continue to be bearish, but the rally of 10% is a strong signal to the market though the volume is not as significant as a reversal signal.

As mentioned yesterday about" any up days of this week maybe a runaway day or a good day for short...", ha, it just happened today though the 900 points rally is definitely out of my imagination.
Some of the short position is over 5%, but I think I will wait until tomorrow to prove that I should take a lose and get out of the short position, at this moment, I still believe that the bottom is still way to come.

Today's Trade:
Bought SMN $93.36
(*setting to buy this price was too high, originally was try to set EMA10: $87)

*****************************

Swing Day Trade

The Dow Jones future was down 500 point before the market open due to the market sell-off in Asia during the weekend, many of them were down more than 10%, include HongKong. The market opened better than expected and then went up even more than 120 point gain until the last minute that it suddenly sold off and down -203 at closing bell. The Dow Jones closed at 8175.77, the lowest level in 5 years.

The markets in Asia were higher on Tuesday and the Dow Jones future is up 200 point for now.
Though the chart is still bearish and the consumer confidence number will be announce tomorrow which is expected to be lower. The house sales number increase while the price is down.
Any up day of this week maybe a runaway day or a good day for short...


Today's trade:
Shorted ANR @26.53

****************************

Test Support - Possible break next week

As the global markets fear the "R"ecession, the stock market went lower closed the lowest since 2003, thought the Dow Jones intraday lowest point (8187.43) is still higher than the one on Oct 10 (7773.71), but lower than the previous intraday low (8197.67) on Oct16. The market may continue to decline, test the support at 8000 , then 7773. If the support been broke, the market will start another free fall again, then we may see another bottom though not necessary the last one.


Friday's Trade:
Covered AAPL $93.59
Sold half EEV @193.00

**********************

Continue Bearish Trend -- Watch Energy Sector

Another down day on market until the last minutes that the Dow Jones had turned into 172 point gain. The high-low swing of today is about 500 point, another volatile trading day. The Nasdaq was not able to turn into positive though, -11.84, closed at 1603.91; S&P was up 11.33, closed at 908.11.
The crude oil still closed lower but the energy sector ends up higher.XOM was up 9% today.

The earning report from companies such as Microsoft, MacDonald, and Western Digital all show good return for the third quarter, though the market has changed so quickly that nobody would expect good result from the 4th quarter, and it is usually the most important shopping season of the year.

Today's Trade:
Bought FNM $0.7

多空交戰

The market continue to slip despite of some good earning reports from companies such as aapl, brcm, amgn, etc.. The Dow Jones index was down 514.45(5.69%) closed at 8519.21, Nasdaq was down 80.93 closed at 1615.75, S&P500 was down 58.27 closed at 896.78.
The investors are still worried about the global and US economic slowdown and recession; the two days decline had already wiped out the gain on Monday and the trend is still going down.

I thought AAPL was a short target ; even though today's outstanding earning report, the price is still under the 10 days EMA. After a while, I realized that it is one of the few companies which closed higher today, it is stronger than most of other companies. That means , I would able to find a weaker company for the short target, not aapl...

The other reason for my view of bearish is the political issue: the presidential election next month. The poll shows that Obama has 10% more support than his opponent. The situation is very tough right now for whomever win the election. And I view the young senator, may take longer to get familiar with the issues in front of him...

Today's Trade:
Shorted AAPL: $96.24

10-21-2008

Oct 21 Trade:
Bought TWM $98.84
Bought FNM $0.88

價量關係

今天大盤又以拉尾盤作收: 道瓊斯上漲413 以9265.43 點收盤, 那斯達克 上漲58.74 以1770.03 點收盤,標準普爾上漲44.85 以985.4 點收盤。

今天漲勢主要是因為柏南克談話顯示第二套振興經濟計劃可望獲得提出討論, 及市場預期利率下降 今天雖然股市大漲但並未出現大量買盤, 顯示大咖們還在觀望 (難道是想要設陷阱?)
上週便設定此週為出場週 ,今天在中盤時便將存貨出清 (因為怕尾盤會殺), 大約在漲150 ~ 200點時便賣掉手中該賣的。 有的賺有的賠, 又加碼放空的股票 。其中比較令我意外的是clf, 今天漲了 30%;雖然太早賣掉, 只是股數不多便是。 MDT 及 SPY 大概是賠錢賣了 。
盤後業績報告: 德儀(TI;TXN) 昇陽(SUN;JAVA) 的業績都不理想 ,股價在盤後均大跌; SanDisk (SNDK)及美國運通(AXP) 雖業績不好但優於預期。 小漲一些 本周還有其他大公司報業績 : AAPL,BRCM,YHOO,LSI,AMGN,MRK,AMZN .... 也是我急於出場的主因 ..

人的心理真得很奇怪 ,對自己公司的股票總是不願甘心認賠, 我的套房均由此而來, 唉。戒之戒之!.
有時覺得自己操作有點反應過快(或是市場反應太慢?) 像上次雖預見大跌情形, 但太早補空; 不過當時誰能想到會連續八天都重跌呢? 不知這次如何? 再看吧!

Today's Trade:
Shorted Goog: $366.56
Bought EEV $124.5
Sold QQQQ $32.32,$32.47
Sold XLF $15.58
Sold JNJ $63.49
Sold MDT $41.06
Sold CLF $33.5 (closed $36.47)
Sold SPY $95.85
Sold NVDA $7.85

清理門戶

之前在見到短期反彈信號前後所買進的一些股票, 可能要盡快處理掉, 畢竟在不是做長期投資的時機, 而且股票種類太多, 沒時間一一仔細檢視, 還是要做一些清理工作, 希望下周能有一些出場的時機。 不過下周仍是企業的財報週, 還是謹慎為上。
週四盤後Google發布優於預期的盈餘, 周五早盤跳空上漲, 收盤漲了$19.52(5.53%), 盤中漲到385點後, 便出現疲軟的現象。 雖然星期三不敢繼續持有google的股票, (誰知道市場反映會如何) 星期二賣掉的價錢(372.51) 與今天的收盤價($372.54)相差無幾。 今天見它似乎沒有上漲的動力 ,而且大盤看來也不容有太樂觀的情勢, 便於早上設了一個放空價之後 ,就上班去也。 在中盤時便以 $383.23 賣空 。
Dow Jones down 127 closed at 8852.22; Nasdaq down 6.42 closed at 1711.29; S&P500 down 5.88 closed at 940.55. 以上週表現看來 其實是五年來表現最好的一週 ,但往後可能有更嚴峻的情形, 不能不防。 Dow Jones 有可能會跌破上次的低點, 到接近7200 的水平。

現在由於200天均線已經沒有意義, 改以20天均線取代 。Google 的賣空價便是基於MA20.

Today's Trade:
Shorted Goog $383.23

附記: 台塑集團創辦人王永慶先生於美視察工廠期間病逝。

****************************

守住第一道防線

今天道瓊斯指數早盤曾下跌300點, 十分驚險, 因為已經低過星期五的收盤價 ,一度下探8200的關卡。 還好最後尾盤大幅上揚, 終場上揚400點, 以8979點作收。 Nasdaq up 89.38, closed at 1717.71, S&P500 up 38.59 , closed at 946。 黃金則下跌34.5 以804.5作收。 原油漲了$3, closed at $72.91。
盤後 google 發布業績, 盈餘超過預期, 盤後大漲37點(10.5%) 。
因為拉尾盤的關係, 有一隻作空的ETF (TWM) 到了之前設定的買點, 以$110買進。
以目前的走勢分析, 今天形成了第二個低點, 測試了之前的底部, 應該會有一輪漲勢 。但我想上面的阻力還是相當多, 作多的股票可找機會出場。
QQQQ 最低點便和上星期五的最低點相當 ,可能有很多人便止損出場了。不過QQQQ 看來還是表現差一些, 希望今天google 的報告能給它一些上漲的動力。
今天查看一下401K的表現, 從公司轉到Charles Schwab 才一星期, 就已經掉了20%; 還不算之前MassMutual 今年掉的 (可能有30%)。以後還是要定時檢視一下, 這些基金的管理人就這樣坐領高薪嗎?

Today's Trade:
Bought TWM $110
note: Goog lowest at $309.44 (lower than last Friday's low: $310), I just cancel my order last night , and reset the buying price to $294; the risk is high at this period of time...

如履薄冰 準備腳底抹油

昨日才剛說樹林裡的熊仍徘徊不去, 今天這隻熊便沉不住氣, 又大剌剌的現身了。 道瓊斯今日大跌733點, Nasdaq down 150;S&P500 down 90。 最讓人擔心的是道瓊斯已經跌破8600點, 最低點已跟星期一的最低點相當, 看來明天便要失守。 若跌穿上周五反轉信號的最低點, 那就麻煩大了。明天又是 option 的到期日, google 也將在盤後公布財報, 明天預測震盪會相當大。
今日見到市場下探至道瓊斯跌300點時, 進了一些股票, 同時也買進作空的ETF 作為保護。 後來進一步跌500點 ,又繼續買進另一隻作空的ETF。 今日交易空對多數額比例最後為 5:3。

Today's Trade:
Bought EEV $128
Bought TWM $113.98
Bought JNJ $61.6
Bought MDT $41.61
Bought SPY $92.5

樹林中的熊仍徘徊不去

今天早上股市承續昨天的漲勢,道瓊斯開盤上漲400點 ,但未能維持, 尾盤前一個小時曾掉了300點。 收盤最後一個小時再度拉高, 最後以小跌76.62, 收在9311。 Nasdaq表現較差, 幾乎是呈一路往下跌的趨勢。股市仍處於相當震盪的局面, 還是要謹慎, 步步為營。
今天沒啥關注股市, 只是在上班前看到google 直直落, 便趕快出場了。 到公司後早上就開會了, 中午又是球賽, 今天打得很精彩, 後來逆轉勝 ! 三戰兩勝已贏了兩場, 下一場我準備把比較穩定的投手排上場, 打線也將集中火力, 看來是可以清盤了。 咦? 好像偏離主題了, 不過今天打球確實有忘掉其他一切的感覺, 專注力, 判斷力都很重要。
由於今天中午曾有一些較大的跌勢 ,所以有一些設定買進的股票也都到位, 本來想長期投資(鬼話) 但後來想到那隻大熊仍虎視眈眈, 還是不要抱在手中太久。 不然哪天負擔過重, 跑都跑不動 。明天也該進一些 short ETF 作為對沖。
盤後Intel 發布業績, 其盈餘上漲12%, 但對未來走勢則未做出清楚說明, 也難怪, 市場這麼混沌的時期, Intel 還未能評估未來會有何影響。 不確定性其實是股市最害怕的 。星期四 google 便要發布業績 ,真不知如何操作。 我想股價應該會下跌, 但還在猶豫是不是要賭一下, 再看一天吧, 最多就放他一馬吧。(觀察其是否能過EMA20 的阻力)
日本經過了這麼長時間的衰退, 竟然還能在這個時期出手收購美國這些瀕臨破產的銀行, 果然還有一些實力。 我想是因為日本的儲蓄習慣吧。 EWJ 圖形看來還不行, 但可以再觀察一段時間, 逢低慢慢買進。



Today's Trade:
Sold GOOG $372.51
Bought NVDA $7.78
Bought CLF $34
Bought MDT $43.5
Bought JNJ $64

戒急用忍 -- Rebound or Bottom ?

曾經在十月一日的標題中下過 : "繼續看空 除非道瓊漲一千點" 。這個日子比我預期的快多了, 在經過一個星期無量下跌後 ,市場在上週五顯示了反轉的訊號; 更在今天從一開盤便不斷往上衝, 道瓊斯收盤漲了936.42 , 雖然離之前所提到的一千點還差 60 點, 但若從星期五的低點起算,其實已經漲了一千五百點。
雖然說趨勢線仍是在熊市範圍, 而且也還不能確定未來幾個月會不會在有另外的一個低點, 但至少在短期內, 相信底部在上星期五已經形成。但新的問題來了: 已獲利的部位該如何處理 ? 是應該繼續持有等到疲軟賣出, 或是見好就收 ? 我想還是要看個股的情形而定。

Today's trade:
Bought QQQQ $32.86 (closed at $35.13) :
Note: Set buy before market at $33, and it is triggered with today's open price of $32.86.
Bought XLF $15.19

***************~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

A Possible Reversal Signal on Friday 10-10-2008

After the worst week of the market in decades, the market seems to have reached it recent bottom as the reversal signal seems appear on Friday. The Dow Jones was once down under 8000, sharply down 700 point in early trading but ended down 128 point, it had once even been positive for a moment, it was more than 1000 point swing during the day. The Nasdaq was up 4.39 closed at 1649.51 and S&P500 was down 10.7 closed at 899.22.
EEV shows a dark cloud on the chart and other major indies do show a possible reversal pattern for the next week to come.
The gold dropped $27.5 is worth noted, usually when the market drops this much, the gold will be a safe place to be, but the price of gold in the past week didn't show its strength.

The market trend is still in the bear market but it is showing a possible short term technical rebound as the market was oversold in past week.


Today's trade:
Bought FNM $0.85 (closed $1.08)
Bought SIMO $3.7 (closed $3.48)
Bought NVDA $6.7 (closed $6.96)
Bought GOOG$332 (closed $330.06)
Bought SPY $88 (closed $89.6)
Bought QQQQ $31 (closed $31.42)

~~~~~~~~ ********************** ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ *******************

錯誤檢討與戰術改變

雖然今天早盤(道瓊斯)如預料中漲了百點以上, 在經過漫長的激戰之後, 最終還是這隻大熊戰勝 而且在最後一個小時的交易中, 買盤全面崩掉, 跌掉超過六百點, 若把早上漲點算進, 更有八百多點的跌幅。(vix 今天更達65!!)
造成的損失可說是咎由自取, 有許多需要檢討的地方...
第一、 本來在周一就打算袖手觀望, 怎知還是沒有耐心, 只撐了一天便跳了進去。
第二、 進場完全沒有技術圖形的根據 ,完全照自己的臆測。
第三、 昨天本來就設定把 EEV 放著做為對沖之用, 但是卻過度自信, 又因設了止損而把它賣掉, 根本就自亂陣腳。
第四、 本來只是買一點用測試市場之用最後還是放了太多進去。

下一步: 雖然還是相信近期底部已近, 但還是不宜貿進 既然Zecco 這個月是免費的, 就好好運用一下吧! 看來明天也是跌勢, 就每天用一點點資金慢慢進場, 若看到反轉信號再大幅加碼 至於如何處理google ?還是設個止損好了 (今天已止損一半部位 但是還有一半)。

能源股還是要關切一下, UltraShort可能已經不宜了? 或是看看在低價時買回一些EEV。

傍晚在尋找Dow Jones/Nasdaq 的支撐價位時, 發覺2001~03 左右的圖形極適合拿來參考。 雖然這次情形嚴重許多, 但有一些事情, 如人性, 是不會改變太多的。

Dow Jones

2001~2003: May to Oct; from 11350 drop to 8062 (-30%)

2008 May to Oct; from 13136 drop to 8579 (-35%)

Nasdaq

2002~2003: Jan to Oct; from 2100 drop to 1108 (-47%)

2008 : Jan to Oct; from 2700 drop to 1645 (-39%)

Today's Move:
Bought UYG $11, Stop Sold at $9.95 (closed at 8.41) --> day trade #2;watch out
Sold (half) Stop Goog $330 (closed at $328.98)
Sold EEV $145.28
Bought NVDA $7.7 (closed at $6.9)
Bought SPY $99.64(closed at $90.85)

********

抄底 -- 危險動作 請勿模仿

今天市場其實有兩大利多消息: 一是美國及世界其他六個國家央行同步調降利率, 二是美國財政部門將會援助美國公司解決資金借貸問題, 但早盤市場反應冷淡 盤中曾經一度反彈 但最終仍以跌勢作收
Dow Jones down 189.96 closed at 9258.1, Nasdaq down 14.55 closed at 1740.33, S&P500 down 11.29 closed at 984.94
在利多消息下市場反應冷淡, 我認為可以解讀成已經接近近期的市場底部, 投資人基本上已經對市場走向極端失望,也失去了信心。 從VIX 指數高達57.5 (更曾到達 59)即可了解市場的心理
在這個時候便是大膽進場的時機! 以前由趨勢線來判斷走勢是相對而言較容易的, 而在這種時機要喊出買進, 可能會被認為是瘋子
糟糕的是, 還跟其他朋友推薦一起瘋, 以後還是少幹這種事為妙, 壓力超大的。 畢竟自己玩玩賠錢就算了, 若朋友賠錢真的是... 唉,賺了錢也沒我的事, 賠了錢又深感愧疚啊! 真的還是少推薦這種 reversal 的 , 自找的, 還好從最新的指數看來, 明天開盤Dow Jones 可能可漲 150~200 點 (亞洲股市也都回穩反彈了)

今天就因此原因進了goog 及 simo , 也買到了放空型的eev (昨晚下的單 沒有取消) 不過這樣也好 eev 就當作對沖了, 也因如此, 今天goog 後來雖然掉了$7 帳面上剛好與eev的漲勢抵消
不過就算明天漲 eev 也還可以放一陣子以防萬一 (明天應該會掉 there is a hanging man bearish)

明天還有幾個重要的經濟數據出爐, 不過我已經不 care ,因為大家都知道不會好。 比較重要的另一個因素即是限制放空的期限到期; 明天開始, 接受大家放空!!
很多人以為這對市場是壞消息, 我認為不然: 第一、 證管會限制放空這段時間, 銀行還不是一間接著一間倒。 第二. 很多投資機構不願意在沒有對沖工具的情況下投資;
一旦此一禁令取消, 這些投資機構便可安心進場, 而大盤, 便是由這些大咖撐起的, 散戶只能是撿他們剩下的 (不過我想跟他們共進退 嘻嘻嘻)

Today's trade:
Bought eev $150 (closed at 158.5)
Bought simo $4.13 (closed at 4.16)
Bought goog $348.45 (closed at 338.11)

潦落去?!

Stock market declined again today, much more than I had expected.. the economic situation is really sick now. Dow Jones down 508.39 (5%) closed at 9447.11, Nasdaq down 108.08 (5.8%)closed at 1754.88, S&P500 down 60.66 closed at 996.23. These indies are all in 5 years low position.
AA report earning after market, its profit cut in half. The whole market is just like a bottomless.
Even there are a lot of stocks attractive now, but all looks very terrible from chart.
Everyone is waiting for a short rebound, but, can it rebound ? Still think to buy EEV, today closed at $152.

站高山看馬相踢

今日Dow Jones 曾經跌掉800點 ，也跌破了萬點關卡 ，不過收盤前收復部分失土， 跌369.88點 收在9955.50。 Nasdaq -84.43 closed at 1862.98, S&P500 down 42.34, closed at 1056.89
我本來預期若道瓊斯掉了一千點, 可能就是一個底部浮現, 今天曾掉800點, 未來還是有下探可能
不過今天拉尾盤 留下一個頗為可觀的下影線, 近期極有可能出現反彈, 但由於此周開始進入企業財報周, 以目前的狀況看來, 是不會有什麼好消息的。但技術面上看來如此 ，還是觀望一下好了， 這周大概也不會有太大的起伏了
今天在大盤掉到最低點前, 就把全部放空的部位補回; 不是因為改為看漲, 只是既然已經到了目標, 就下車吧, 不必太貪心。不過昨天晚上測試點位時,　覺得這些目標價好像要過一陣子才會到,　沒想到市場反應如此激烈,也從而偷窺到fibonacci 的神奇,以後可常用。在stockcharts 上就可用　可是公司電腦太落伍,沒裝java-flash,只好回家再算。

下一步政府如何救市？除減息之外,已無他法。聯儲局會把它當最後武器,　非不得已而用之,　要不然,就已經彈盡糧絕了

Today's move:
Covered all short Positions:
Covered BBY @32.1
Covered GOOG $366.8,$363.65, 363.58,
Sold TWM $94.03
Sold EEV $137.98

***

眾議院通過7000億紓困方案,富國銀行併購美聯銀行

星期五晚上眾議院不出意料之外通過紓困方案 股票市場從早盤漲市到收盤收黑 Dow Jones 早上曾經漲約 200 點 但收盤則掉157點 等於有三百多點漲跌 也表示投資人對市場未來仍缺乏信心 對七千億紓困計畫能發揮多少效果也呈悲觀看法
美元仍呈現上漲趨勢 全球各地美元定存利率也飆高 因為美國資金急需流回美國市場救急 造成美金上漲 相對來講 金價油價及其他原物料則呈下跌
星期四便打算在星期五認賠賣出GLD 賣了之後想順勢作空 但是卻下成買單 還好後來有漲了上來 便趕快拋掉 因為來回三次了 為免變成Day Trader Pattern 便放棄作空了
至於富國銀行(Wells Fargo) 併購美聯銀行 (Wachovia) 一案 從華爾街日報了解到其背後的種種 尤其是原來花旗銀行(Citi)已和美聯銀行幾乎談妥合併案 卻在最後一刻生變 令花旗銀行及其中牽線的聯邦官員相當不滿與錯愕 花旗銀行已向法院提出訴訟 因為其在意向書中曾要求美聯不得與其他機構討論併購案法院在周末已受理此案 但因富國銀行並不需要聯儲局獲政府出資幫忙 對美聯及政府其實是比較完美的解決方案 看來這個案子還得花一段時間才能定案 從這件案子也可看出可能還是有一些銀行或私人仍有相當能力吃下有潛力的公司
美股周一開盤前 亞洲市場皆呈下跌局面 預料美股亦然

Friday's Move:
Added Short Position on Goog: $395 (It had been to $410, but was busy with GLD orders..)
Sold GLD (Take Lose) at $82.17
Bought GLD (Wrong order) $81.22
Sold GLD $81.83.

* * * * * *

退休帳戶401k -- 關注下一個受害者

If you failed on your investment, you will need to take lose all by yourself; if you are lucky to make money out of it, the government will tax on you. Now, when the investment banks failed on their investment, (they claimed their risk management!?), the government and the tax payers need to fix their lose, and the executives still take money out of it ?
欠錢的比債主大 只要你欠的夠多 債主還怕你呢!
Today's markets down again despite the senate passed the rescue package last night.Dow Jones down 348 closed at 10482.85, Nasdaq down 92.68 (closed at 1976.72) and S&P500 down 46.78 closed at 1114.28. As I mentioned yesterday about the candle stick, it gives bull a chance but it only shows a flat market, this bull is already run out of power. The jobless claims number today is also one of the factor for the decline, the chain reaction had started... Next, people start to worry about their 401k, or need their money out from 401k, and the fund managers will have less money to invest and worsen their performance.

The dollar become stronger these three days, and the gold drop $44; from chart point of view, it the time to get out of GLD, though I still think the strong dollar won't last long, and gold should come back higher... Well, I'd better to follow the chart says not what I think.

Today I took lose out of Merck, I was told these segment would be safer when the market got hit, but not at this time, people just cut their budget to get cheaper drug or reduce dose, also the company faced some problems. It's time to stop.
The bet on shorting Google, emerging market and small cap looks correct at least for now,
Goog down 21,23 (5.16%) closed at 390.49, EEV up 12.68(12.9%) closed at 110.87,TWM up 6.88(9.3%) closed at 80.38 .BBY down 2.12 (5.8%) closed at $34.4 and it diving down.

Today's move:
Sold MRK at $31.85 (closed at 31.1 down 0.99)

繼續看空 --- 除非道瓊漲一千點

The market today is as I predicted yesterday that it will not change too much as the investors are waiting for the result from the senate today and House tomorrow about the rescue plan.
The revised package had been passed in the senate, some of the key features:
higher FDIC insurance cap (from $100k to $250k); tax break;unlimited amount borrowing from Treasure to FDIC.
Though the Senate passed the package, it is much higher cost than the original one, most people are against the plan as I checked some of the messages on boards.(of course, it always theopposition voice louder).
The Dow Jones future down $138 (pre-market), and the asia markets are also declined.
The candle stick shown yesterday as a harami (bullish) but turned out just a flat market today;
the Dow Jones was recovered from 200 loss to close even. The market surely is not in a good mood.

This morning I was simply follow the chart and short some stocks even I knew the news could be positive to some people. Let's see which one will lead the way.

Today's move:
Shorted Goog $403.12 (closed at 411.72 +11.2)
Bought TWM (Ultra short Russel 2000) $75.81 (closed at $73.66 +1.6)